?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 7 games
57%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 26 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 19 games
47%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
not me · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 694 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 712 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 425 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 325 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 964 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 439 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 886 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Team Tidebound 75%One Move 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
45% · 105 games47% · 169 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
50% · 119 games53% · 89 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNothingToSay
65% · 9 games42% · 25 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
68% · 11 games48% · 9 games
AxeChodΣX
Axe
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
52% · 88 games52% · 40 games
Bounty Hunternot me
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Tidebound 76%One Move 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
50% · 484 games50% · 281 game
TinyWoE
Tiny
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
49% · 115 games44% · 130 games
DawnbreakerChodΣX
Dawnbreaker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidFaith_bian
53% · 57 games54% · 234 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpLAnet
51% · 112 games50% · 204 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Io
Ioy`
46% · 93 games69% · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionnot me
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 89%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2