PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 3:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Muerta
Boxi · 33 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 28 games
Invokersignature
Nisha · 23 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 40 games
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 27 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 720 bans
Phoenix
470 picks · 743 bans
Clockwerk
467 picks · 458 bans
Muerta
456 picks · 354 bans
Batrider
412 picks · 494 bans
Magnus
411 picks · 1029 bans
Bristleback
404 picks · 929 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 76%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:28
Team Liquid 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerNisha
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
SvenmiCKe
Pangolierbzm
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Dark Seer33
MuertaBoxi
ClockwerkSaksa
JakiroiNSaNiA
DazzleWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed31:21
Team Liquid 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsamiCKe
Templar Assassinbzm
PuckNisha
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer33
WeaverBoxi
MuertaSaksa
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
JakiroWhitemon
Game 3prediction correct14:20
Team Liquid 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenmiCKe
Alchemistdyrachyo
DazzleSabeRLight-
Invokerbzm
SlardarNisha
Dark Seer33
SilenceriNSaNiA
PhoenixWhitemon
TuskBoxi
TinySaksa
Game 4prediction missed36:10
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
Invokerbzm
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Alchemistdyrachyo
Ember SpiritNisha
Death Prophet33
MuertaBoxi
PhoenixWhitemon
JakiroiNSaNiA
WeaverSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTeam Liquid 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4