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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 38 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 35 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 30 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 25 games
84%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
37%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 727 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
469 picks · 464 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 747 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 354 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 498 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 931 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Tundra Esports 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
49% · 25 games50% · 239 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Tiny
Tinybzm
50% · 234 games50% · 116 games
SniperLorenof
Sniper
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
55% · 70 games50% · 91 game
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
44% · 57 games49% · 22 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Tusk
TuskSaksa
46% · 158 games58% · 76 games
Night StalkerMira
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction missed14:42
Tundra Esports 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbzm
58% · 94 games49% · 434 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
55% · 246 games43% · 372 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death Prophet33
49% · 54 games58% · 140 games
EnigmaTORONTOTOKYO
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
46% · 404 games51% · 103 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 420 games46% · 169 games
MarciMira
Marci
Game 3prediction correct24:10
Tundra Esports 68%Aurora Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
52% · 107 games47% · 77 games
Nature's ProphetNightfall
Nature's Prophet
Abaddon
Abaddondyrachyo
40% · 64 games56% · 101 game
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
60% · 70 games48% · 144 games
TerrorbladeTORONTOTOKYO
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
41% · 65 games51% · 52 games
Shadow ShamanPanto
Shadow Shaman
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
53% · 155 games46% · 87 games
Night StalkerMira
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3