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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 16 games
88%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 31 game
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 27 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 729 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
475 picks · 468 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
471 picks · 759 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 502 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 936 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:33
Xtreme Gaming 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
44% · 210 games54% · 88 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
43% · 94 games52% · 245 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
57% · 191 game56% · 89 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Techies
TechiesXinQ
42% · 89 games49% · 127 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Bane
BaneUndyne_
47% · 50 games57% · 85 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed19:34
Xtreme Gaming 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:00:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
48% · 55 games47% · 114 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperXm
52% · 73 games55% · 129 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 117 games56% · 69 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
53% · 80 games43% · 100 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
Elder Titan
Elder TitanUndyne_
50% · 96 games35% · 9 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2