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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 37 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 37 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 26 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 471 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 768 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 365 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1040 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 507 bans
49%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 936 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 543 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 76%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:11
Gaimin Gladiators 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
47% · 88 games55% · 115 games
Marcidyrachyo
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
51% · 161 game54% · 142 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Abaddon
AbaddonAce
43% · 33 games59% · 138 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Mirana
MiranatOfu
50% · 99 games53% · 67 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
38% · 128 games46% · 47 games
IoWhitemon
Io
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Gaimin Gladiators 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
38% · 49 games49% · 92 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Puck
PuckQuinn
46% · 96 games55% · 118 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
55% · 39 games46% · 20 games
Dazzlebzm
Dazzle
Earthshaker
EarthshakertOfu
50% · 49 games31% · 9 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
48% · 85 games58% · 79 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Game 3prediction correct38:40
Gaimin Gladiators 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWatson
36% · 73 games52% · 75 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
42% · 70 games53% · 55 games
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
Nature's Prophet
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAce
55% · 68 games60% · 106 games
Doom33
Doom
Mirana
MiranatOfu
47% · 106 games55% · 42 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Silencer
SilencerMalady
57% · 3 games55% · 42 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3