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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hive-loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
legacy · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Stoic · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
emptiness · 3 games
0%

Hive-

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 8 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
slimeyao · 6 games
17%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
slimeyao · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
byun · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
20%
Lion
Lion
xsvampire · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
20%
Windranger
Windranger
byun · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 440 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
584 picks · 326 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 564 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
455 picks · 662 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 375 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 522 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 409 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 1030 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Flame Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
Flame Esports 58%Hive- 42%
The model gave 58% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomemptiness
48% · 187 games53% · 220 games
Tinybyun
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireStoic
45% · 349 games53% · 416 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
44% · 258 games57% · 158 games
Banekur0patbI4
Bane
Game 2prediction missed5:36
Flame Esports 57%Hive- 43%
The model gave 57% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Hive- in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
Largoemptiness
51% · 61 game52% · 54 games
Drow Rangerbyun
Drow Ranger
Rubick
RubickJeezy
42% · 122 games52% · 81 game
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneStoic
54% · 95 games50% · 143 games
Clockwerkkur0patbI4
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct40:37
Flame Esports 58%Hive- 42%
The model gave 58% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Flame Esports in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
52% · 319 games53% · 267 games
Shadow Fiendbyun
Shadow Fiend
Mars
Marsemptiness
49% · 238 games49% · 149 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Tusk
TuskStoic
50% · 344 games47% · 485 games
Jakirokur0patbI4
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame Esports · 63%
Series resultFlame Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3