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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 37 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 36 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 26 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 14 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 471 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 772 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 364 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 514 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 934 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 542 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:24
Tundra Esports 75%Natus Vincere 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon33
44% · 47 games53% · 219 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
51% · 85 games49% · 49 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
54% · 346 games55% · 120 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
45% · 82 games48% · 166 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingWhitemon
40% · 45 games60% · 51 game
Night StalkerQBFY
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction correct34:8
Tundra Esports 77%Natus Vincere 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
54% · 182 games54% · 174 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey Kingbzm
53% · 194 games54% · 289 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Abaddon
Abaddon33
44% · 57 games50% · 176 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
47% · 89 games49% · 78 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
47% · 310 games46% · 115 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2