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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 15 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 14 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%

Yellow Submarine

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 471 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 775 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 365 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 514 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1038 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
409 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 540 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Aurora Gaming 73%Yellow Submarine 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
48% · 93 games46% · 69 games
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
48% · 228 games58% · 64 games
Viperre1bl
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 63 games46% · 354 games
Pangoliermangekyou
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
48% · 152 games55% · 152 games
Weavermrls
Weaver
Muerta
MuertaMira
54% · 137 games54% · 34 games
Silencerififall
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct26:23
Aurora Gaming 72%Yellow Submarine 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
49% · 128 games52% · 45 games
Lycanmangekyou
Lycan
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
54% · 243 games46% · 225 games
Pangolierre1bl
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonTORONTOTOKYO
40% · 67 games54% · 157 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Silencer
SilencerPanto
65% · 23 games55% · 26 games
Venomancerififall
Venomancer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
46% · 63 games48% · 71 game
Marcimrls
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 88%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2