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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 25 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
63%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 10 games
40%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 9 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 732 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 366 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 519 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1039 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 540 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:37
Heroic 61%Wildcard Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
44% · 381 game49% · 423 games
TinyYamSun
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
53% · 252 games47% · 398 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
50% · 260 games57% · 160 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroScofield
49% · 169 games57% · 130 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Warlock
WarlockKJ
44% · 127 games49% · 78 games
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct36:13
Heroic 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuma
56% · 223 games49% · 165 games
AlchemistYamSun
Alchemist
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
48% · 124 games50% · 267 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
50% · 50 games49% · 58 games
Death ProphetFayde
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaScofield
50% · 99 games45% · 153 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
50% · 235 games54% · 88 games
Faceless VoidBignum
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 72%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2