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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 37 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
72%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 29 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 29 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 730 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 781 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
448 picks · 368 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
428 picks · 522 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 1040 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
411 picks · 930 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 537 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:34
Tundra Esports 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
43% · 149 games51% · 250 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
50% · 316 games56% · 150 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Bristleback
Bristleback33
49% · 231 game57% · 196 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranaWhitemon
49% · 147 games47% · 114 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSaksa
54% · 7 games49% · 140 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed17:38
Tundra Esports 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
46% · 194 games45% · 167 games
TerrorblademiCKe
Terrorblade
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
51% · 58 games57% · 161 game
MagnusNisha
Magnus
Doom
Doom33
47% · 142 games55% · 141 game
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Marci
MarciSaksa
37% · 67 games61% · 61 game
Faceless VoidBoxi
Faceless Void
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
48% · 91 game59% · 22 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2