PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
Muerta
rue · 25 games
Batridersignature
rue · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Mirana
tOfu · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
518 picks · 736 bans
Phoenix
489 picks · 792 bans
Clockwerk
486 picks · 475 bans
Muerta
448 picks · 374 bans
Batrider
440 picks · 528 bans
Magnus
433 picks · 1046 bans
Bristleback
415 picks · 938 bans
Pangolier
395 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit 82%Gaimin Gladiators 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Game 2prediction correct39:22
Team Spirit 68%Gaimin Gladiators 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYatoro
MarciWatson
Dragon KnightLarl
Ember SpiritQuinn
TidehunterCollapse
PangolierAce
Dark Willowrue
MiranatOfu
SilencerMiposhka
IoMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2