?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 11 games
18%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
45%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 21 game
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 8 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 736 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 792 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 475 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 374 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 528 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1045 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
415 picks · 937 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
394 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
OG 49%Wildcard Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
52% · 127 games44% · 224 games
TinyYamSun
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaCeb
57% · 142 games50% · 150 games
Monkey KingRCY
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
46% · 104 games50% · 29 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
47% · 55 games51% · 45 games
AbaddonFayde
Abaddon
Warlock
WarlockxNova
53% · 106 games50% · 86 games
JakiroBignum
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct19:14
OG 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
44% · 97 games50% · 133 games
UrsaYamSun
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCeb
53% · 118 games57% · 273 games
Primal BeastRCY
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierNine
49% · 271 game41% · 93 games
AbaddonFayde
Abaddon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
43% · 85 games58% · 88 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Leshrac
LeshracDaze
60% · 66 games46% · 50 games
Bounty HunterBignum
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct4:27
OG 48%Wildcard Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tiny23savage
46% · 342 games51% · 142 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
51% · 238 games54% · 204 games
MagnusRCY
Magnus
Axe
AxeCeb
51% · 20 games56% · 84 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Leshrac
LeshracDaze
47% · 83 games54% · 103 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
44% · 97 games49% · 247 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 51%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3