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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mosquito Clanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 36 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
73%

Mosquito Clan

Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
payk · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Yadomi · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Warlock
Warlock
Yadomi · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 735 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
488 picks · 791 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 475 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 373 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
437 picks · 527 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1041 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 937 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
394 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:30
AVULUS 70%Mosquito Clan 30%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
51% · 121 game50% · 401 game
Gyrocopterpayk
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
49% · 421 game56% · 214 games
TimbersawPiPi
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordXibbe
53% · 112 games44% · 68 games
AbaddonVitaly
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderEkki
48% · 437 games51% · 298 games
EnchantressMatthew
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
42% · 152 games53% · 262 games
TuskYadomi
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:21
AVULUS 70%Mosquito Clan 30%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
49% · 145 games56% · 190 games
Bristlebackpayk
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarStormstormer
55% · 90 games44% · 174 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
53% · 157 games53% · 96 games
TidehunterVitaly
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyEkki
52% · 351 game48% · 293 games
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
44% · 97 games46% · 87 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Game 3prediction correct33:38
AVULUS 71%Mosquito Clan 29%
The model gave 71% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
46% · 229 games49% · 65 games
Nature's ProphetPiPi
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperStormstormer
45% · 53 games55% · 195 games
Bristlebackpayk
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
52% · 160 games50% · 314 games
BeastmasterVitaly
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroSoNNeikO
55% · 138 games55% · 141 game
LeshracMatthew
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyEkki
46% · 364 games45% · 229 games
MuertaYadomi
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 85%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3