PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Muerta
Scofield · 25 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
Yellow Submarine
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
Lion
mrls · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
511 picks · 736 bans
Phoenix
490 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 477 bans
Muerta
446 picks · 377 bans
Batrider
438 picks · 532 bans
Magnus
435 picks · 1038 bans
Bristleback
409 picks · 939 bans
Pangolier
391 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
Heroic 74%Yellow Submarine 26%
The model gave 74% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuma
Nature's Prophetre1bl
DawnbreakerWisper
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Viper4nalog
Tidehunterififall
EnchantressKJ
Venomancermangekyou
Shadow ShamanScofield
Bounty Huntermrls
Game 2prediction correct29:11
Heroic 72%Yellow Submarine 28%
The model gave 72% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYuma
Tinkerre1bl
MarsWisper
Terrorbladenesfeer
Pangolier4nalog
Dazzlemangekyou
PhoenixKJ
Weaverififall
MuertaScofield
Tuskmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 88%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2