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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Carstensz Esportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Carstensz Esports

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
ace12 · 3 games
100%
Lich
Lich
ace12 · 3 games
33%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Dreamocel · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Dreamocel · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
seimei · 2 games
50%

Yangon Galacticos

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ksh · 9 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Teehee · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Rupido · 2 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
631 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
581 picks · 323 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 570 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 663 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 379 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 526 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 409 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 1039 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Carstensz Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Carstensz Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Carstensz Esports 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerseimei
45% · 100 games54% · 112 games
LunaKsh
Luna
Tiny
TinyDreamocel
46% · 253 games58% · 165 games
DoomRupido
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixace12
47% · 226 games49% · 36 games
Earth SpiritYoung PH
Earth Spirit
48% · 125 games
LionDric~
Lion
58% · 141 game
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Carstensz Esports 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyDreamocel
52% · 453 games48% · 109 games
LunaKsh
Luna
Brewmaster
Brewmasterseimei
47% · 130 games45% · 212 games
Storm SpiritYoung PH
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubickace12
52% · 380 games53% · 141 game
AxeRupido
Axe
44% · 120 games
EnchantressTeehee
Enchantress
57% · 381 game
HoodwinkDric~
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct51:16
Carstensz Esports 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz Esports — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports in 58:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
Slardarseimei
50% · 210 games51% · 238 games
TerrorbladeKsh
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendDreamocel
49% · 176 games44% · 83 games
Dark SeerRupido
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkace12
49% · 272 games48% · 19 games
Earth SpiritYoung PH
Earth Spirit
50% · 123 games
TechiesDric~
Techies
57% · 195 games
BaneTeehee
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz Esports · 53%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3