PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 36 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
Tusk
Saksa · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 28 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
AVULUS
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 36 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
515 picks · 739 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 799 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 478 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 379 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 536 bans
Magnus
437 picks · 1048 bans
Bristleback
412 picks · 947 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
Tundra Esports 77%AVULUS 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursadyrachyo
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Doom33
Dark SeerXibbe
TinkerWhitemon
TuskEkki
BatriderSaksa
SilencerSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Tundra Esports 79%AVULUS 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Storm Spiritbzm
VisageStormstormer
Abaddon33
DoomXibbe
EnchantressSaksa
JakiroSoNNeikO
RingmasterWhitemon
TuskEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2