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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 28 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 27 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
65%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 11 games
27%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 735 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 799 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 539 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 943 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Team Liquid 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
50% · 167 games48% · 48 games
Nature's ProphetSancity
Nature's Prophet
Huskar
HuskarNisha
54% · 35 games50% · 138 games
BeastmasterShad
Beastmaster
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
55% · 22 games42% · 294 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
51% · 288 games53% · 127 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBoxi
50% · 135 games55% · 40 games
Bounty HunterQBFY
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Team Liquid 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
37% · 139 games54% · 60 games
LycanShad
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
54% · 90 games50% · 174 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarNisha
44% · 84 games64% · 121 game
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBoxi
50% · 91 game45% · 182 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
53% · 230 games49% · 97 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2