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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 18 games
72%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Worick · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 14 games
57%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 4 games
75%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Norma · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Astral · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Astral · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 733 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 484 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 381 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1038 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 938 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:23
Night Pulse 67%Apple City Gang 33%
The model gave 67% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 53:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWorick
55% · 240 games45% · 93 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKami
40% · 127 games49% · 189 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Doom
DoomDavai
52% · 244 games58% · 86 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
Muerta
MuertadEsire
48% · 303 games54% · 176 games
Pugnaflacko
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
38% · 13 games53% · 383 games
ClockwerkAstral
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct38:10
Night Pulse 69%Apple City Gang 31%
The model gave 69% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKami
51% · 74 games50% · 179 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
58% · 216 games41% · 37 games
Abaddonyowaai
Abaddon
Mars
MarsDavai
47% · 232 games54% · 106 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
Oracle
OracleKidaro
49% · 65 games43% · 317 games
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Tusk
TuskdEsire
49% · 292 games54% · 240 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 82%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2