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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
91%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 10 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 9 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
50%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ethereal · 8 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 733 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
485 picks · 484 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1036 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 938 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:28
ASAKURA 46%Hydra 54%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
42% · 157 games58% · 289 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierSerenada
46% · 226 games47% · 326 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
51% · 112 games52% · 122 games
TidehunterActor
Tidehunter
Rubick
Rubickslimeyao
45% · 124 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
54% · 118 games
Game 2prediction missed40:24
ASAKURA 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marci7jesu
44% · 112 games56% · 166 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 147 games50% · 464 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSerenada
45% · 209 games52% · 111 games
SlardarActor
Slardar
Leshrac
Leshracslimeyao
46% · 108 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
50% · 165 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2