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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
flacko · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
flacko · 3 games
100%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 17 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 733 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 484 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 1033 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 938 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
Apple City Gang 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordyowaai
53% · 86 games54% · 61 game
SniperChira JUNIOR
Sniper
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
47% · 99 games54% · 146 games
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
44% · 38 games50% · 32 games
SlarkMunkushi~
Slark
Warlock
Warlockflacko
51% · 43 games45% · 47 games
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Spirit Breaker
Lion
LionAstral
50% · 74 games50% · 54 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed39:16
Apple City Gang 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingyowaai
43% · 24 games48% · 53 games
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
47% · 87 games55% · 232 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNorma
46% · 83 games51% · 95 games
EarthshakerChira JUNIOR
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAstral
49% · 218 games29% · 3 games
Ringmasterswedenstrong
Ringmaster
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
49% · 64 games57% · 93 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed44:33
Apple City Gang 34%1w Team 66%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 52:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
40% · 194 games60% · 70 games
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Naga Siren
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
40% · 201 game56% · 277 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
52% · 90 games48% · 153 games
BristlebackCloud
Bristleback
Bane
BaneAstral
46% · 78 games54% · 99 games
Leshracswedenstrong
Leshrac
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
48% · 93 games59% · 57 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 77%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3