European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportsloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4ikibamboniwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Flame Esports
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Tusk
Stoic · 5 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
Windranger
legacy · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
emptiness · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Deles · 3 games
4ikibamboni
Tusksignature
waveformn · 8 games
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 6 games
Vipersignature
Ethereal · 6 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
631 picks · 439 bans
Rubick
580 picks · 321 bans
Phoenix
480 picks · 574 bans
Pangolier
453 picks · 661 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 378 bans
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 527 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 410 bans
Puck
341 picks · 1040 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% 4ikibamboni
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% 4ikibamboni
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:38
Flame Esports 46%4ikibamboni 54%
The model gave 54% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanemptiness
Nature's Prophetyowaai
WindrangerJeezy
EnigmaAnkou
UndyingStoic
ViperEthereal
51% · 190 games
Tuskwaveformn
53% · 114 games
Baneani-san
Game 2prediction correct27:47
Flame Esports 44%4ikibamboni 56%
The model gave 56% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawemptiness
Doomyowaai
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Queen of PainEthereal
TuskStoic
LargoAnkou
47% · 158 games
Rubickwaveformn
63% · 120 games
Treant Protectorani-san
Model check result
Model favorite4ikibamboni · 59%
Series result4ikibamboni 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2