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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 15 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 13 games
69%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 28 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 732 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 799 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 378 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
428 picks · 1028 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 933 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Night Pulse
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:25
Night Pulse 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
50% · 263 games49% · 116 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
40% · 72 games48% · 438 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Mars
MarsDavai
45% · 227 games56% · 163 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
49% · 90 games57% · 237 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Clockwerk
ClockwerkdEsire
49% · 396 games57% · 94 games
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct29:28
Night Pulse 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKami
41% · 116 games59% · 85 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
55% · 133 games58% · 156 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
40% · 95 games48% · 233 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
41% · 70 games58% · 85 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Tusk
TuskdEsire
45% · 236 games55% · 91 game
EarthshakerZayac
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct16:30
Night Pulse 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
60% · 110 games50% · 73 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
57% · 174 games54% · 96 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Ursa
UrsaKami
45% · 88 games39% · 198 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
38% · 80 games55% · 49 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
60% · 30 games50% · 66 games
EarthshakerZayac
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3