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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
flacko · 3 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 732 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 799 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 378 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
428 picks · 1026 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 932 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:13
Hydra 47%Apple City Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Hydra in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerselfhate
56% · 151 game44% · 95 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirele
53% · 189 games40% · 84 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaActor
59% · 130 games49% · 174 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
42% · 49 games
Ioflacko
Io
45% · 68 games
MarciAstral
Marci
Game 2prediction missed47:33
Hydra 44%Apple City Gang 56%
The model gave 56% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Hydra in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
57% · 188 games45% · 108 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Sniper
SniperMirele
55% · 117 games49% · 69 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Abaddon
AbaddonActor
38% · 66 games55% · 39 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
47% · 101 game
TuskAstral
Tusk
50% · 54 games
Marciflacko
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 56%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2