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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 23 games
39%

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 732 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 376 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1023 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 927 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:46
Zero Tenacity 54%4Pirates 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaRetsu
45% · 98 games52% · 83 games
Phantom AssassinOtaker
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckStojkov
52% · 296 games49% · 334 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
49% · 91 game61% · 127 games
Enigmaмистер мораль
Enigma
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
42% · 143 games50% · 199 games
Tuskariel
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
45% · 308 games54% · 193 games
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct33:30
Zero Tenacity 56%4Pirates 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerRetsu
52% · 254 games45% · 33 games
HuskarNattyNarwhal
Huskar
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
53% · 316 games48% · 348 games
TinyOtaker
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
60% · 233 games47% · 409 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskPablo
44% · 234 games50% · 179 games
Weaverariel
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
49% · 168 games49% · 236 games
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed9:35
Zero Tenacity 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRetsu
46% · 159 games51% · 90 games
BroodmotherOtaker
Broodmother
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNefrit
47% · 138 games46% · 179 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
55% · 135 games50% · 51 game
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
57% · 101 game55% · 168 games
Weaverariel
Weaver
Tusk
TuskPablo
43% · 154 games51% · 199 games
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3