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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 27 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Nefrit · 25 games
40%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 27 games
37%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 26 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
cutie · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 17 games
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Katsura · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
580 picks · 321 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 573 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 661 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 379 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 529 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 414 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 1042 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total75% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Zero Tenacity 64%VP.Prodigy 36%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
53% · 83 games59% · 132 games
LargoMiyaoo
Largo
Invoker
InvokerWorick
52% · 147 games57% · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritcutie
Vengeful Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMikSa`
46% · 310 games48% · 318 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
48% · 340 games49% · 178 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
47% · 104 games47% · 353 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct33:36
Zero Tenacity 65%VP.Prodigy 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaSmiling Knight
51% · 211 games47% · 42 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
43% · 268 games52% · 262 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
50% · 127 games55% · 106 games
LargoMiyaoo
Largo
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
46% · 113 games50% · 176 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneMoOz
56% · 211 games49% · 344 games
TuskJANTER
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 75%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2