?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 6 games
83%

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 22 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 732 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 376 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1021 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
402 picks · 927 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 36%MOUZ 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction missed
Hydra 36%MOUZ 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 3prediction correct
Hydra 36%MOUZ 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3