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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 14 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
57%

Night Pulse

Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 13 games
69%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 730 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
437 picks · 376 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 926 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
1w Team 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
60% · 148 games46% · 138 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
53% · 257 games48% · 357 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Bristleback
BristlebackCloud
57% · 231 game51% · 94 games
SlardarDavai
Slardar
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
45% · 143 games37% · 60 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
52% · 115 games47% · 245 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed46:21
1w Team 43%Night Pulse 57%
The model gave 57% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
57% · 178 games54% · 106 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
47% · 260 games51% · 188 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
49% · 172 games51% · 158 games
DawnbreakerDavai
Dawnbreaker
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
45% · 112 games49% · 283 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
49% · 84 games47% · 71 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct13:31
1w Team 42%Night Pulse 58%
The model gave 58% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMunkushi~
40% · 126 games56% · 84 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
43% · 320 games56% · 124 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
50% · 65 games48% · 343 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
54% · 103 games53% · 37 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
51% · 88 games53% · 114 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 61%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3