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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 12 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 28 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 730 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
437 picks · 376 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
426 picks · 1018 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 926 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 38%Passion UA 62%
The model gave 62% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction missed
4Pirates 38%Passion UA 62%
The model gave 62% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 3prediction missed
4Pirates 38%Passion UA 62%
The model gave 62% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3