DreamLeague Season 25 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 2:3series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Spiritwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 35 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
Tusksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 26 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
Muerta
rue · 22 games
Lion
rue · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 726 bans
Phoenix
491 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
Batrider
440 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
434 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
425 picks · 1012 bans
Bristleback
398 picks · 924 bans
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 763 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:36
Tundra Esports 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritbzm
Nature's ProphetYatoro
Svendyrachyo
Faceless VoidCollapse
Sand King33
EarthshakerLarl
Bounty HunterSaksa
JakiroMiposhka
MuertaWhitemon
Weaverrue
Game 2prediction correct32:29
Tundra Esports 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinydyrachyo
ClinkzYatoro
Abaddon33
BristlebackCollapse
Pangolierbzm
KunkkaLarl
WeaverSaksa
Muertarue
MiranaWhitemon
Bounty HunterMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed26:46
Tundra Esports 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:06:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
SlarkYatoro
Magnusdyrachyo
EarthshakerLarl
Bristleback33
AbaddonCollapse
WeaverSaksa
Muertarue
JakiroWhitemon
BaneMiposhka
Game 4prediction correct29:9
Tundra Esports 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
TinyYatoro
Storm Spiritbzm
LeshracLarl
Abaddon33
PangolierCollapse
EarthshakerSaksa
OracleMiposhka
WarlockWhitemon
Weaverrue
Game 5prediction missed7:37
Tundra Esports 60%Team Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinydyrachyo
ClinkzYatoro
Beastmaster33
Ember SpiritLarl
Invokerbzm
MarsCollapse
WarlockWhitemon
Bounty Hunterrue
EarthshakerSaksa
JakiroMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5