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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 33 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 28 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 25 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 19 games
47%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 18 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 725 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
432 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1013 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 923 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:46
One Move 55%Passion UA 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 44:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosChodΣX
57% · 3 games50% · 150 games
Puckniche
Puck
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidWoE
53% · 68 games56% · 115 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
51% · 265 games48% · 132 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Tusk
Tusknot me
45% · 381 game53% · 137 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Techies
TechiesRein
46% · 79 games50% · 262 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed13:40
One Move 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerWoE
57% · 76 games58% · 105 games
Dark SeerBatyuk
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
47% · 174 games42% · 95 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallize
Phantom Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordChodΣX
44% · 97 games50% · 102 games
Earthshakerniche
Earthshaker
Mirana
MiranaRein
59% · 106 games51% · 102 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Muerta
Muertanot me
50% · 192 games41% · 241 game
TuskFernans
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 60%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2