European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
No games played over 6 months.
Apple City Gang
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Mirana
flacko · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Iooften banned
flacko · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 725 bans
Phoenix
494 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
Muerta
432 picks · 372 bans
Magnus
425 picks · 1013 bans
Bristleback
398 picks · 923 bans
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 17%Apple City Gang 83%
The model gave 83% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Lynx 17%Apple City Gang 83%
The model gave 83% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 83%
Series resultApple City Gang 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2