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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 28 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 26 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Fly · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 22 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
41%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 723 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 481 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
432 picks · 370 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 921 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 761 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
MOUZ 54%Passion UA 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2