CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
swedenstrong · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
Quantum Team
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
Dark Willow
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 721 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
Muerta
432 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
423 picks · 1010 bans
Bristleback
397 picks · 921 bans
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:8
1w Team 74%Quantum Team 26%
The model gave 74% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusMunkushi~
Nature's ProphetLukas
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
LeshracRvze
Night StalkerCloud
Tidehuntertakizawa
Oracleswedenstrong
Earthshakerkolya_kaBAN68
MiranaFishman
Elder TitanFezor
Game 2prediction missed15:37
1w Team 74%Quantum Team 26%
The model gave 74% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
SlarkLukas
Dragon KnightCloud
Ember SpiritRvze
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Bristlebacktakizawa
Ancient Apparitionswedenstrong
Huskarkolya_kaBAN68
SilencerFishman
MiranaFezor
Game 3prediction correct45:9
1w Team 77%Quantum Team 23%
The model gave 77% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Phantom AssassinLukas
PangolierChira JUNIOR
InvokerRvze
Dark SeerCloud
Night Stalkertakizawa
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Weaverkolya_kaBAN68
DisruptorFishman
Elder TitanFezor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 89%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3