European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apple City Gangloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 35 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
Muerta
Pablo · 22 games
Apple City Gang
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Mirana
flacko · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Iooften banned
flacko · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 721 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
Muerta
432 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
423 picks · 1010 bans
Bristleback
397 picks · 921 bans
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 58%Apple City Gang 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 58%Apple City Gang 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 58%Apple City Gang 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 58%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3