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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 28 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
pma · 18 games
61%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 28 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 18 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 718 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 796 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 541 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1009 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
397 picks · 918 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 760 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total81% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
Natus Vincere Junior 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusgotthejuice
52% · 200 games57% · 171 game
Monkey KingWoE
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
49% · 235 games60% · 100 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
49% · 198 games45% · 398 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
54% · 104 games40% · 87 games
Night Stalkernot me
Night Stalker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
48% · 100 games46% · 81 game
WarlockRein
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed15:34
Natus Vincere Junior 70%One Move 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
48% · 76 games37% · 60 games
Phantom AssassinWoE
Phantom Assassin
Huskar
HuskarNiku
52% · 31 game58% · 105 games
MagnusChodΣX
Magnus
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerpma
56% · 78 games43% · 17 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
54% · 57 games48% · 57 games
SlardarDifference
Slardar
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
53% · 100 games45% · 103 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct26:1
Natus Vincere Junior 71%One Move 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
50% · 138 games49% · 43 games
AbaddonWoE
Abaddon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNiku
53% · 63 games53% · 80 games
TidehunterChodΣX
Tidehunter
Doom
Doompma
45% · 116 games44% · 75 games
Queen of PainDifference
Queen of Pain
Mirana
MiranaRiddys
63% · 62 games45% · 33 games
TinkerRein
Tinker
Marci
MarciZayac
55% · 65 games46% · 213 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3