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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 34 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
55%

Night Pulse

Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 14 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 13 games
62%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 717 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 542 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1010 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
397 picks · 919 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 761 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:33
Zero Tenacity 33%Night Pulse 67%
The model gave 67% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordRetsu
53% · 121 game54% · 78 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
54% · 64 games54% · 130 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerStojkov
50% · 88 games47% · 168 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaPablo
53% · 187 games45% · 70 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
41% · 141 game50% · 155 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:45
Zero Tenacity 34%Night Pulse 66%
The model gave 66% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
46% · 320 games51% · 563 games
TinyKami
Tiny
Sven
SvenRetsu
50% · 191 game45% · 117 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierStojkov
49% · 459 games57% · 239 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
54% · 98 games49% · 359 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
51% · 457 games47% · 247 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 79%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2