CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apple City Gang
Leshrac
dualrazee · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Iooften banned
flacko · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Mirana
flacko · 2 games
Muerta
Astral · 2 games
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 32 games
Tusk
flacko · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
niche · 21 game
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
niche · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 715 bans
Phoenix
494 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
480 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
443 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 367 bans
Magnus
420 picks · 1012 bans
Bristleback
399 picks · 918 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:9
Apple City Gang 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
AlchemistCrystallize
Invokerdualrazee
Leshracniche
PangolierNorma
AbaddonBatyuk
WeaverAstral
WindrangerFernans
Marciflacko
Crystal Maidenkreker
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Apple City Gang 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnusyowaai
Storm Spiritniche
Invokerdualrazee
Phantom AssassinCrystallize
PangolierNorma
MarsBatyuk
WeaverAstral
LeshracFernans
Miranaflacko
Phoenixkreker
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2