Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Staffwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team FISSUREloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Team FISSURE
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 713 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
480 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
444 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 367 bans
Magnus
422 picks · 1010 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 919 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Staff
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:45
Aurora Staff 55%Team FISSURE 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Team FISSURE in 39:56.
Game 2prediction correct37:38
Aurora Staff 55%Team FISSURE 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff in 41:59.
Game 3prediction correct35:15
Aurora Staff 55%Team FISSURE 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff in 34:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 55%
Series resultAurora Staff 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3