DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Lion
rue · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 710 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
480 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 367 bans
Magnus
420 picks · 1009 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 917 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 762 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:32
PARIVISION 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusSatanic
Ember SpiritLarl
PangolierNo[o]ne
SlarkYatoro
NecrophosDM
Sand KingCollapse
Tusk9Class
WarlockMiposhka
JakiroDukalis
Muertarue
Game 2prediction missed35:23
PARIVISION 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:04:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNo[o]ne
TerrorbladeCollapse
MagnusSatanic
MorphlingYatoro
Centaur WarrunnerDM
EarthshakerLarl
MiranaDukalis
Muertarue
Tusk9Class
PhoenixMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2