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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
55%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 35 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 32 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 705 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
480 picks · 480 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 542 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
429 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
418 picks · 1009 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
398 picks · 917 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 79%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
PARIVISION 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
52% · 127 games48% · 169 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
51% · 148 games41% · 166 games
Bristlebackbzm
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
68% · 113 games41% · 50 games
Abaddon33
Abaddon
Techies
TechiesDukalis
40% · 41 game52% · 128 games
WeaverSaksa
Weaver
Tusk
Tusk9Class
52% · 182 games46% · 98 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed37:38
PARIVISION 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
53% · 182 games46% · 85 games
Bristlebackbzm
Bristleback
Slark
SlarkSatanic
50% · 52 games47% · 75 games
Marcidyrachyo
Marci
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
61% · 105 gameslittle data
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Techies
Techies9Class
40% · 39 games50% · 128 games
WeaverSaksa
Weaver
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
43% · 16 games50% · 106 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct10:44
PARIVISION 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
58% · 101 game54% · 143 games
Magnusdyrachyo
Magnus
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
56% · 100 games44% · 167 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
54% · 196 games53% · 165 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
42% · 191 game50% · 138 games
MiranaWhitemon
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
37% · 102 games53% · 77 games
Night StalkerSaksa
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3