Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
BetBoom staffwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DOTA2.RU Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BetBoom staff
No games played over 6 months.
DOTA2.RU Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 699 bans
Phoenix
495 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
428 picks · 368 bans
Magnus
419 picks · 1004 bans
Bristleback
397 picks · 914 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 760 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% BetBoom staff
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% BetBoom staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:25
BetBoom staff 57%DOTA2.RU Team 43%
The model gave 57% on BetBoom staff — the game was taken by DOTA2.RU Team in 55:23.
Game 2prediction correct32:34
BetBoom staff 57%DOTA2.RU Team 43%
The model gave 57% on BetBoom staff — the game was taken by BetBoom staff in 43:22.
Game 3prediction correct34:26
BetBoom staff 57%DOTA2.RU Team 43%
The model gave 57% on BetBoom staff — the game was taken by BetBoom staff in 42:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetBoom staff · 57%
Series resultBetBoom staff 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3