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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Grind Backwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mentality Monsterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Grind Back

Bane
Bane
ace12 · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
GaN- · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Cije · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
0%

Mentality Monster

Silencer
Silencer
Juju · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
GaN- · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Juju · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Cije · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Juju · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
OneJey · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 436 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
578 picks · 320 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 574 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
452 picks · 658 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 382 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 526 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 1036 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 412 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Mentality Monster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Grind Back
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:38
Grind Back 57%Mentality Monster 43%
The model gave 57% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawegxrdemxn
51% · 223 games46% · 127 games
Luna23savage
Luna
Tiny
TinyCije
50% · 388 games49% · 208 games
AxeForce
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireGaN-
49% · 249 games48% · 419 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixJuju
50% · 313 games47% · 273 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Magnus
MagnusOneJey
53% · 42 games58% · 188 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed32:45
Grind Back 59%Mentality Monster 41%
The model gave 59% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 1:12:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoCije
58% · 11 games52% · 48 games
Necrophos23savage
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritGaN-
54% · 262 games48% · 340 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Snapfire
Snapfireegxrdemxn
51% · 217 games46% · 191 game
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
RubickOneJey
46% · 253 games47% · 130 games
Keeper of the LightQ
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorJuju
61% · 95 games43% · 129 games
LichOli
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteGrind Back · 66%
Series resultGrind Back 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2