Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming — prediction I2ЗК · Dota 2

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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Nemesisloss 1:2

series probability

59%41%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Amaru Gamingwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tinysignature

rubikon155 · 25 games

64%

Slardaroften banned

Jabz · 20 games

55%

Pangolieroften banned

Jabz · 18 games

50%

Windranger

Q · 18 games

50%

Muertaoften banned

23savage · 15 games

40%

Tusk

Jhocam · 15 games

53%

Hoodwinksignature

Lelis · 14 games

71%

Shadow Demonoften banned

Jhocam · 14 games

57%

Amaru Gaming

Hoodwink

Michael · 11 games

55%

Underlordoften banned

Oscar · 9 games

44%

Tidehuntersignature

Oscar · 8 games

63%

Treant Protectoroften banned

Gardick · 8 games

50%

Brewmasteroften banned

Oscar · 6 games

33%

Jakiro

Gardick · 6 games

50%

Rubick

Genek · 6 games

50%

Storm Spiritsignature

PiPi · 6 games

67%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

635 picks · 436 bans

53%

Rubick

578 picks · 320 bans

49%

Phoenix

481 picks · 574 bans

51%

Pangolier

452 picks · 657 bans

50%

Tiny

444 picks · 382 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

355 picks · 525 bans

50%

Storm Spirit

342 picks · 411 bans

48%

Puck

341 picks · 1036 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%

Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total59% Team Nemesis

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

Team Nemesis 59%Amaru Gaming 41%

The model gave 59% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.

Game 2prediction missed

Team Nemesis 59%Amaru Gaming 41%

The model gave 59% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.

Game 3prediction missed24:22

Team Nemesis 57%Amaru Gaming 43%

The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 42:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Tinyrubikon155

44% · 402 games41% · 36 games