?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 28 games
68%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 676 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 798 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
475 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 547 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
428 picks · 365 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
393 picks · 913 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:43
Team Liquid 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
53% · 87 games48% · 76 games
SlarkYatoro
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
46% · 81 game56% · 123 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
45% · 64 games45% · 26 games
DazzleLarl
Dazzle
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
43% · 116 games58% · 103 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
44% · 42 games56% · 62 games
Rikirue
Riki
Game 2prediction missed36:32
Team Liquid 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
49% · 153 games51% · 370 games
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
50% · 378 games59% · 79 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Bristleback
BristlebackSabeRLight-
47% · 189 games43% · 130 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
39% · 12 games57% · 96 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
48% · 214 games51% · 271 game
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct19:30
Team Liquid 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
42% · 83 games60% · 110 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
47% · 60 games50% · 124 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
49% · 139 games54% · 167 games
BristlebackCollapse
Bristleback
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
43% · 99 games53% · 58 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
45% · 279 games56% · 201 game
Tuskrue
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3