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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 23 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
55%

Chimera Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 20 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 668 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
423 picks · 363 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 1001 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
389 picks · 912 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:21
PARIVISION 66%Chimera Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
49% · 233 games55% · 97 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusNo[o]ne
54% · 279 games45% · 296 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDM
46% · 239 games55% · 205 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Tusk
Tusk9Class
50% · 366 games46% · 282 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerDukalis
48% · 15 games52% · 252 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct42:44
PARIVISION 66%Chimera Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 56:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
43% · 45 games53% · 27 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
37% · 113 games58% · 76 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
55% · 199 games50% · 170 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Night Stalker
Night Stalker9Class
49% · 71 game51% · 142 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Techies
TechiesDukalis
43% · 38 games57% · 51 game
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 80%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2