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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 29 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 17 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 665 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 797 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
476 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
421 picks · 360 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
414 picks · 999 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
389 picks · 910 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
Heroic 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
48% · 40 games36% · 137 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
52% · 143 games49% · 120 games
EarthshakerNisha
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusWisper
56% · 168 games42% · 102 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
60% · 277 games48% · 89 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Mirana
MiranaKJ
58% · 74 games48% · 254 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed30:26
Heroic 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
46% · 132 games50% · 241 game
PuckNisha
Puck
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
55% · 77 games47% · 205 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusWisper
53% · 237 games47% · 221 game
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
47% · 357 games52% · 169 games
MarciBoxi
Marci
Muerta
MuertaScofield
47% · 257 games55% · 224 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2