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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 11 games
45%

Quantum Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 12 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 11 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
11%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
44%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
499 picks · 660 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
478 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 550 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
421 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
414 picks · 1002 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
387 picks · 909 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:16
4Pirates 58%Quantum Team 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerOtaker
59% · 69 games37% · 23 games
MeepoRvze
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 148 games45% · 40 games
SlarkLukas
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
51% · 139 games48% · 210 games
Beastmastertakizawa
Beastmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
49% · 37 games56% · 66 games
WarlockFezor
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
44% · 124 games54% · 178 games
Weaverkolya_kaBAN68
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed8:34
4Pirates 58%Quantum Team 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciOtaker
53% · 82 games50% · 50 games
Nature's ProphetLukas
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
45% · 94 games48% · 324 games
TinyRvze
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
48% · 339 games50% · 47 games
Night Stalkertakizawa
Night Stalker
Io
IoPERDAN4IK
46% · 65 games48% · 101 game
Miranakolya_kaBAN68
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
48% · 56 games60% · 114 games
Elder TitanFezor
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed29:37
4Pirates 59%Quantum Team 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 53:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
50% · 81 game53% · 392 games
TinyLukas
Tiny
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
59% · 130 games46% · 102 games
LeshracRvze
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
48% · 332 games47% · 86 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Muerta
Muertaariel
51% · 166 games53% · 99 games
MiranaFezor
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPERDAN4IK
46% · 22 games41% · 52 games
Slarkkolya_kaBAN68
Slark
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 66%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3