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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 34 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 31 game
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 25 games
64%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
80%

Chimera Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
63%
Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 19 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 655 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 479 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
421 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
416 picks · 1006 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 763 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
388 picks · 909 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:21
Tundra Esports 71%Chimera Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
47% · 78 games56% · 68 games
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Nature's Prophet
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
54% · 54 games46% · 109 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
49% · 130 games45% · 57 games
VenomancerOneJey
Venomancer
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
48% · 25 games61% · 72 games
Night StalkerDaxak
Night Stalker
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
49% · 138 games47% · 119 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct34:23
Tundra Esports 71%Chimera Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
55% · 105 games48% · 207 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Invoker
Invokerbzm
53% · 97 games44% · 93 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
50% · 100 games56% · 148 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
51% · 223 games53% · 73 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Marci
MarciSaksa
45% · 77 games43% · 81 game
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2