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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%

Heroic

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 30 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 29 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 17 games
41%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 653 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
417 picks · 1007 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
388 picks · 909 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
Team Spirit 70%Heroic 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
51% · 113 games48% · 93 games
MarciYuma
Marci
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
45% · 108 games54% · 118 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
55% · 143 games51% · 306 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
53% · 62 games47% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
Tuskrue
48% · 170 games44% · 45 games
IoKJ
Io
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Spirit 71%Heroic 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
52% · 85 games52% · 118 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
53% · 117 games51% · 25 games
SlarkYuma
Slark
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
51% · 77 games51% · 113 games
Queen of Pain4nalog
Queen of Pain
Dazzle
DazzleMiposhka
50% · 18 games47% · 102 games
MarciScofield
Marci
Tusk
Tuskrue
45% · 104 games48% · 43 games
IoKJ
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2