Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
Team FISSUREwin 1:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Staffloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team FISSURE
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 653 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 795 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 553 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 362 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 1007 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
Bristleback
388 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Team FISSURE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team FISSURE 38%Aurora Staff 62%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Team FISSURE.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 62%
Series resultTeam FISSURE 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1